Drexel-Arizona Stats Analysis: Somehow, So Close

By ADAM HERMANN

Philahoops Staff

@AdamWHermann

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OFFENSE

(The offensive graph contains three components. Along the x-axis runs Scoring Efficiency, which measures how efficiently each player scored their respective points. Along the y-axis runs the percentage of their team’s points each player scored. And the size of the player’s bubble represents the number of minutes played. A perfect game would land a player in the upper right section of the graph.)

CONSOLIDATED OFFENSE

Wednesday’s game was Drexel’s most confounding effort of the season offensively. The Dragons began the game with 27 points in the first 14 minutes, but scored just 35 in the final 26. They shot 58 percent from the field in those first 14 minutes but finished at just __ percent by the end of the game.

And the Dragons received 74 percent of their offense from just two players, guards Chris Fouch and Frantz Massenat.

Fouch scored 29 points on a passable 41 percent efficiency, an impressively aggressive game from the New York native. His 47 percent of his team’s points was the highest share of any Dragon on the year, and it was clear that the senior was essentially Drexel’s only font of offense down the stretch.

Massenat also managed to add 16 (?) of his own on just 40 percent efficiency, which was his season average coming into the game. He hit a few clutch shots, including an important three pointer to keep his team in contention late in the game, but was otherwise just acting on instinct because the majority of his team couldn’t score against the Wildcats.

ALLEN REGRESSES

Tavon Allen had a career week last Monday and Tuesday when he went off against Elon and Rutgers. Wednesday night his efficiency and overall production both took major steps back; the sophomore couldn’t find any rhythm from the floor, finishing with 26 percent scoring efficiency on the night, a far cry from last week’s 57 percent in the two games.

It’s a shame to see the regression, but it’s also to be expected. Allen is just a sophomore scorer whose game, while explosive, is still decently unrefined. Before this game he was 43 percent efficient through four games. With Damion Lee out indefinitely, Allen’s contributions will be under increased scrutiny. It’s up to him to determine whether he can handle the limelight.

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DEFENSE

(The defensive graph consists of two parts. Along the x-axis runs the percentage of the team’s minutes played, the dependent variable. Along the y-axis runs points allowed against, which shows how many points each player’s lineups allowed when they themselves were on the court. A perfect game would land a player in the bottom right section of the graph.)

THE RUFFIN EFFECT

This defensive section will be dedicated entirely to Dartaye Ruffin, who, it is becoming increasingly obvious, singlehandedly dictates how successful the Dragons will be defensively on a nightly basis.

For example, Ruffin played his typical 1.48 points allowed per minute game Wednesday night, but foul trouble limited his ability to play 30+ minutes, which became Drexel’s ultimate downfall. He played limited minutes towards the end of the first half, when Arizona began to mount its momentum-shifting comeback that gave them life before halftime.

His presence (or lack thereof) also had a dramatic impact on the play of freshman forward Rodney Williams, who was thrust into 35 minutes of action after playing just 44 in the first four games of the season because of Kazembe Abif’s concussion.

Williams had a great defensive game on paper, allowing just 1.49 points per minute in his 35 minutes. However Ruffin played a huge role in that number.

When Ruffin was on the floor, Williams’ lineups allowed just 1.15 points per minute in roughly 21 minutes against Arizona. When Williams played 14 minutes without Ruffin, his lineups allowed 2.07 points per minute. That 0.92 points per minute difference adds up to a 36.8 point difference over a 40-minute game.

When Ruffin was on the floor Wednesday, his lineups allowed 1.48 points per minute, which is on pace for 59.2 points in a 40-minute game. When he was out, the Dragons’ lineups allowed 1.93 points per minute, or a 77.2 point pace. That difference alone is 18 points, which nine times out of 10 will be the difference between a win and a loss.

In short: Dartaye Ruffin makes Drexel’s defensive world turn, and don’t you forget it.

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EFFECTIVE LINEUPS

(The only lineups that count towards the analysis are the ones run for a minute or longer; in theory, these are the ones the coaches truly want to run as units rather than short-term coaching strategies because of fouling or defensive sets at the ends of games.)

 

Interestingly enough, eight of the nine lineups Bruiser Flint ran for more than a minute Wednesday night hadn’t been run for more than a minute in the first four games of the season. Of course, three of those eight involved Goran Pantovic, a scary development for the Dragons that came to fruition because of Abif’s concussion injury.

Nothing against Pantovic — because I clearly could never make a college basketball team, much less one as good as Drexel’s — but he is a liability. And it showed. His three effective lineups were outscored 18-10 in just under seven minutes of action. Flint will try his best to avoid letting his seven-foot problem on the court in a close game for the rest of the season.

In other areas, though, it was strange that some lineups had never been used.

For example, the lineup of Dartaye Ruffin, Rodney Williams, Frantz Massenat, Damion Lee, and Chris Fouch hadn’t been used effectively in the first four games of the season. And the lineup was spectacularly efficient Wednesday night, outscoring the Wildcats 25-10 in 13:27 of action. Foul trouble and injury kept the lineup from being used much after the first nine minutes of the game, but going forward it’s good to know that Kazembe Abif can miss games — or just playing time — without worrying the Dragons faithful too much.

We also finally found out how the Dragons would look without an upperclassman forward. The answer, unfortunately, is awful.

When Rodney Williams and Mohamed Bah were the only big men on the floor, the Dragons were outscored 17-11 in just over seven minutes of action. Kaleb Tarczewski took it to Drexel’s newbies and was the driving force behind Arizona’s comeback.