Bracketology Report with Lou Caruso – Week of February 3rd, 2014

Louis Caruso is the man behind ExplorertownBracketologist.com.  Caruso is a graduate of La Salle University Class of ’01. Follow him at @lf_caruso. His Bracketology Report will be updated on Mondays. 

You can see Caruso’s updated bracket here. He updates it daily. If you have questions that you would like asked for next week, you can email them here or leave them in the comments below.

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LC: This past weekend marked the moment when most teams entered the last third of their regular season schedule. At this stage in the game, road wins and home losses are even more significant and will greatly influence teams’ seeding in the bracket. As we enter one of the most compelling parts of the schedule, keep an eye on significant road wins. For example, Ohio St. quieted their critics with a giant road win against Wisconsin and Baylor jumped back into the bubble discussion with their win against Oklahoma St. Wins and losses that teams accrue from here on out will be fresh in the Selection Committee’s mind.

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PH: St. Joseph’s picked up a great win against UMASS yesterday and are now winners of 11 of their last 13. The win was their first big one of the season and followed a loss the Saturday before to Richmond. Where do you have the Hawks right now?

LC: As of yesterday afternoon, the Hawks are the second team outside of the Big Dance. Their tournament resume is really coming together with only one bad loss to Temple. St. Joe’s obviously has more work to do and I would like to see them win at least one game between St. Louis and VCU. If they lose both of those games, their margin for error will shrink. In that scenario, the Hawks will have to win their next six out of seven games with their only loss to George Washington.

PH: Villanova dispatched Temple easily on Saturday and now have Xavier, Seton Hall and DePaul before taking on Creighton in a rematch of a game that saw them blown out. Can the Wildcats regain a #1 seed with their remaining schedule? If they win the next four, do you see them doing so?

LC: I currently have Villanova positioned as the first team ready to gain a #1 seed in the event a team like Wichita St. or Florida falters. Villanova’s ability to regain a #1 seed will be tested quickly as the Cats have to defeat Xavier at home. If Villanova loses that game, their chance for regaining a #1 seed is over. Additionally, their revenge game against Creighton on the road will be a monstrous game. If the Wildcats win their next four games then a #1 seed is a given.

PH: La Salle picked up a much needed win against Duquesne and will now face two ranked teams over the next week in UMASS and Saint Louis. The Explorers had two ranked wins in a row last year, and these two will lead into a game against St. Joseph’s. Assuming La Salle can win their next three, do they lock up an NIT bid? How close do they get to the bubble?

The Minutemen have a lot riding on Wednesday’s game against La Salle. They desperately need a win to reestablish their position in the Atlantic 10. I do not see La Salle going on the road and beating UMASS. The game against the Billikens, on the other hand, can be seen as a trap game. St. Louis will meet La Salle in between St. Joseph’s and VCU.

With those two games carrying NCAA tournament implications, I wouldn’t be surprised to see La Salle give the Billikens trouble at Gola. The NIT is still a possibility for the Explorers. As I stated last week, their magic number is 18 wins. The more I look at their schedule, the more I think La Salle will have to sweep St. Joe’s to have a chance at the NIT.

 PH: The Big East currently has nine teams in the top 108 in RPI, but only four teams in the top 50 (behind the Atlantic 10, who has five). How many teams do you see from the Big East in the tournament? 

LC: I think you answered your own question with the RPI data. The Big East will have three teams safely in with Villanova, Creighton and Xavier. The Friars of Providence will be a wildcard. I can see teams like Georgetown and Marquette give the Friars trouble. If Providence can’t make it in the tournament, look for LSU or Baylor to make a run into the tournament.  Also, keep an eye out for a late run from Marquette and Georgetown. Can either of those two teams win the conference tournament and receive an auto bid? Absolutely.

PH: Who are your four #1 seeds today? Who do you have as the last four in and who are your first four out? Finally, where are other bracketologists going wrong with their current brackets?

LC: My top four seeds are Syracuse, Florida, Wichita St. and Arizona. I think Arizona is a near lock for a #1 seed as they could have 28 wins by season’s end. My last four teams in are Providence, SMU, Kansas St. and Missouri. My first four teams out are LSU, St. Joseph’s, Baylor and Ohio.

Although Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi’s brackets do not reflect Saturday’s games, I think both bracketologists deeply underestimated Florida. The Associated Press supplied data through their ranking January 27 to justify a #1 seed in bracketology. Even without their ranking, Florida is 19-2 with losses only to UCONN and Wisconsin. I expect Florida to win the SEC and finish with 27 wins. I do not see Michigan St. (Palm’s #1 seed) or Kansas (Lunardi’s #1 seed) accumulating enough wins to regain a #1 seed.

More specific to their brackets, I question how Palm arrived to the idea that North Carolina St. is a #12 seed. I don’t even have the Wolfpack within the first 15 teams out of the tournament. I also think Lunardi overvalued the Big 12 a bit. Along with ranking Kansas as a #1 seed, Lunardi had Oklahoma as high as a #4 seed. Oklahoma is good, but they were never a #4 seed even before their most recent loss to Iowa St. The Sooners appear as a #7 seed in my bracket.

Bracketology obviously can spark a lot of debate. I’m sure those two great bracketologists can find flaws in my bracket as well.

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Louis Caruso is the man behind ExplorertownBracketologist.com.  Caruso is a graduate of La Salle University Class of ’01. Follow him at @lf_caruso. His Bracketology Report will be updated on Mondays. 

You can see Caruso’s updated bracket here. He updates it daily. If you have questions that you would like asked for next week, you can email them here or leave them in the comments below.

 

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